Analyst
Analyst
Trade Beats Again In June
- June export growth accelerated to 27.0% yoy (+7.6ppt mom), well above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 19.0% yoy, led by continued strength in the ASEAN, EU and Hong Kong markets.
- Import growth rose to 36.0% yoy (+8.6ppt mom), also above consensus estimate of 26.1% yoy, mainly driven by record-high integrated circuits demand, with modest support from a low base for comparison.
- The trade surplus widened to US$125.6b from US$105.4b, above consensus' US$120.1b. Overall, base effects should turn less favourable in 2H26 which may moderate headline growth, particularly for imports.
What’s New
- Export growth rose to 27.0% yoy in June from 19.4% yoy in May (+7.6ppt mom), beating Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 19.0% yoy. The acceleration mainly reflects genuine demand and continued trade diversification. China's export growth to ASEAN strengthened to 34.5% yoy (+10.2ppt mom), while China's export growth to the EU picked up to 18.5% yoy (+10.9ppt mom). China's exports to Hong Kong remained strong at 58.0% yoy (-5.1ppt mom), consistent with its role as a transit hub. On the other hand, China's export growth to the US moderated to 13.9% yoy (-21.5ppt mom), as the base for comparison turned less favourable. In addition, China's export growth to Japan eased to 6.9% yoy (-4.0ppt mom).
- China's import growth came in at 36.0% yoy in June (+8.6ppt mom), above Bloomberg consensus estimate of 26.1% yoy. A low base provided moderate support, with broad weakness in commodities trade values. China's import growth of coal and iron ore rebounded strongly to 63.0% yoy (+43.6ppt mom) and 21.8% yoy (+19.5ppt mom), respectively. In contrast, China's import growth of crude oil turned negative at -6.1% yoy (-16.3ppt mom), reflecting fading price support from the earlier Strait of Hormuz disruption, while copper ore eased to 23.0% yoy (-11.0ppt mom).
- All major product categories saw growth accelerations, integrated circuits remained the standout among key trade product categories, with import growth reaching 72.3% yoy (+4.3ppt mom), a fresh record value that signals genuine and sustained AI-related chip demand. China's hi-tech products export growth held at 52.2% yoy (+1.3ppt mom) and mechanical & electrical products export growth strengthened to 34.2% yoy (+6.8ppt mom), consistent with the strength in integrated circuits. Moreover, motor vehicle export growth accelerated to 61.2% yoy (+28.0ppt mom), while agricultural products import growth picked up to 19.6% yoy (+15.7ppt mom).
- The trade surplus widened to US$125.6b from May's US$105.4b, above consensus' US$120.1b. Base effects should turn less favourable in 2H26 which may moderate headline growth, particularly for imports.
Trade Beats Again In June
- June export growth accelerated to 27.0% yoy (+7.6ppt mom), well above Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 19.0% yoy, led by continued strength in the ASEAN, EU and Hong Kong markets.
- Import growth rose to 36.0% yoy (+8.6ppt mom), also above consensus estimate of 26.1% yoy, mainly driven by record-high integrated circuits demand, with modest support from a low base for comparison.
- The trade surplus widened to US$125.6b from US$105.4b, above consensus' US$120.1b. Overall, base effects should turn less favourable in 2H26 which may moderate headline growth, particularly for imports.
What’s New
- Export growth rose to 27.0% yoy in June from 19.4% yoy in May (+7.6ppt mom), beating Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of 19.0% yoy. The acceleration mainly reflects genuine demand and continued trade diversification. China's export growth to ASEAN strengthened to 34.5% yoy (+10.2ppt mom), while China's export growth to the EU picked up to 18.5% yoy (+10.9ppt mom). China's exports to Hong Kong remained strong at 58.0% yoy (-5.1ppt mom), consistent with its role as a transit hub. On the other hand, China's export growth to the US moderated to 13.9% yoy (-21.5ppt mom), as the base for comparison turned less favourable. In addition, China's export growth to Japan eased to 6.9% yoy (-4.0ppt mom).
- China's import growth came in at 36.0% yoy in June (+8.6ppt mom), above Bloomberg consensus estimate of 26.1% yoy. A low base provided moderate support, with broad weakness in commodities trade values. China's import growth of coal and iron ore rebounded strongly to 63.0% yoy (+43.6ppt mom) and 21.8% yoy (+19.5ppt mom), respectively. In contrast, China's import growth of crude oil turned negative at -6.1% yoy (-16.3ppt mom), reflecting fading price support from the earlier Strait of Hormuz disruption, while copper ore eased to 23.0% yoy (-11.0ppt mom).
- All major product categories saw growth accelerations, integrated circuits remained the standout among key trade product categories, with import growth reaching 72.3% yoy (+4.3ppt mom), a fresh record value that signals genuine and sustained AI-related chip demand. China's hi-tech products export growth held at 52.2% yoy (+1.3ppt mom) and mechanical & electrical products export growth strengthened to 34.2% yoy (+6.8ppt mom), consistent with the strength in integrated circuits. Moreover, motor vehicle export growth accelerated to 61.2% yoy (+28.0ppt mom), while agricultural products import growth picked up to 19.6% yoy (+15.7ppt mom).
- The trade surplus widened to US$125.6b from May's US$105.4b, above consensus' US$120.1b. Base effects should turn less favourable in 2H26 which may moderate headline growth, particularly for imports.
Analyst
Analyst
Growth Of Exports And Imports (3MMA)
Exports To Key Markets
Imports Of Key Commodities
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