Key Indices
Top Stories
Economics | Indonesia’s Reserves Rise, But Rupiah Faces Renewed Pressure Amid Global Uncertainty
- Indonesia’s forex reserves rose to US$146.5b in August, supported by capital inflows and minimal forex intervention due to a rupiah appreciation. However, strong US jobs data reignited Fed rate hike expectations, reversing the rupiah's gains and pushing bond yields higher. The rupiah is expected to face renewed depreciation pressure in September-October, potentially reaching Rp18,000-18,200 by year-end. A wildcard remains: Emerging market capital flows are unexpectedly counteracting higher US yields, and this trend warrants close monitoring.
Strategy | Digital Banks: Beyond Growth, Different Paths To ROE
- Indonesia’s digital bank competition is shifting from customer acquisition towards profitable balance sheet control. SeaBank demonstrates how an integrated ecosystem can combine scale with strong returns. We believe the investment opportunity extends beyond current earnings: SUPA offers the clearest listed organic growth story. ARTO has built customers and deposits, with a reported but unconfirmed shareholder review involving BFIN offering origination optionality. BBYB combines an operating turnaround with speculative ownership consolidation potential.
Technical Analysis
Bumi Resources | BUMI IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp220, and take profit at Rp238.
Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper | INKP IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp9,075, and take profit at Rp9,525.
Top Stories
Economics | Indonesia’s Reserves Rise, But Rupiah Faces Renewed Pressure Amid Global Uncertainty
- Indonesia’s forex reserves rose to US$146.5b in August, supported by capital inflows and minimal forex intervention due to a rupiah appreciation. However, strong US jobs data reignited Fed rate hike expectations, reversing the rupiah's gains and pushing bond yields higher. The rupiah is expected to face renewed depreciation pressure in September-October, potentially reaching Rp18,000-18,200 by year-end. A wildcard remains: Emerging market capital flows are unexpectedly counteracting higher US yields, and this trend warrants close monitoring.
Strategy | Digital Banks: Beyond Growth, Different Paths To ROE
- Indonesia’s digital bank competition is shifting from customer acquisition towards profitable balance sheet control. SeaBank demonstrates how an integrated ecosystem can combine scale with strong returns. We believe the investment opportunity extends beyond current earnings: SUPA offers the clearest listed organic growth story. ARTO has built customers and deposits, with a reported but unconfirmed shareholder review involving BFIN offering origination optionality. BBYB combines an operating turnaround with speculative ownership consolidation potential.
Technical Analysis
Bumi Resources | BUMI IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp220, and take profit at Rp238.
Indah Kiat Pulp & Paper | INKP IJ
- Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp9,075, and take profit at Rp9,525.
Key Indices
IMPORTANT NOTICE - DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS
This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
