Company Coverage
Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH): 2Q26: Results Missed; Stated-owned Investors Disposed Shares
HOLD (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rmb1,341.99
Rmb1,295.00
-3.5%
Rmb1,395.00
Analyst
Analyst
Highlights
Moutai’s 2Q26 revenue declined 5% yoy and net profit dropped by 7% yoy, missing consensus by 8% and 9%, respectively.
By channel, direct sales rose 34% yoy, accounting for 61% of liquor revenue in 2Q26, while wholesale channel sales declined 35% yoy. i-Moutai sales came in at Rmb18.7b in 2Q26, up 283% yoy, driven by its continued DTC transformation.
As of end-2Q26, stated-owned investors, including Central Huijin Asset Management and China Securities Finance Corporation, no longer appear among Moutai's top 10 shareholders. By comparison, as of end-1Q26, the two held 0.83% and 0.32% of total shares, respectively. Maintain HOLD; cut target price by 7% to Rmb1,295.00.
Analysis
2Q26 results missed. Kweichow Moutai (Moutai) reported 1H26 revenue of Rmb92,278m (+1% yoy). Gross profit (operational) was Rmb81,229m (-0.5% yoy), and operational gross margin was 89.6% (-1.7ppt yoy). EBIT totalled Rmb61,089m (-2% yoy), and EBIT margin was 66.2% (-2.1ppt yoy). Net profit was Rmb44,517m (-2% yoy), and net margin was 48.2% (-1.6ppt yoy). Core net profit was Rmb44,464m (-2% yoy), and core net margin was 48.2% (-1.6ppt yoy).
Highlights
Moutai’s 2Q26 revenue declined 5% yoy and net profit dropped by 7% yoy, missing consensus by 8% and 9%, respectively.
By channel, direct sales rose 34% yoy, accounting for 61% of liquor revenue in 2Q26, while wholesale channel sales declined 35% yoy. i-Moutai sales came in at Rmb18.7b in 2Q26, up 283% yoy, driven by its continued DTC transformation.
As of end-2Q26, stated-owned investors, including Central Huijin Asset Management and China Securities Finance Corporation, no longer appear among Moutai's top 10 shareholders. By comparison, as of end-1Q26, the two held 0.83% and 0.32% of total shares, respectively. Maintain HOLD; cut target price by 7% to Rmb1,295.00.
Analysis
2Q26 results missed. Kweichow Moutai (Moutai) reported 1H26 revenue of Rmb92,278m (+1% yoy). Gross profit (operational) was Rmb81,229m (-0.5% yoy), and operational gross margin was 89.6% (-1.7ppt yoy). EBIT totalled Rmb61,089m (-2% yoy), and EBIT margin was 66.2% (-2.1ppt yoy). Net profit was Rmb44,517m (-2% yoy), and net margin was 48.2% (-1.6ppt yoy). Core net profit was Rmb44,464m (-2% yoy), and core net margin was 48.2% (-1.6ppt yoy).
HOLD (Maintained)
Current price:
Target price:
Upside:
Previous TP :
Rmb1,341.99
Rmb1,295.00
-3.5%
Rmb1,395.00
Analyst
Analyst
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This report is provided subject to, and must be read together with, the full Disclosures / Disclaimers available at this link, which are incorporated by reference into this report. In particular, this report is intended for general circulation and informational purposes only and does not constitute personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any investment product or security. You should independently evaluate the information and, where necessary, seek advice from a qualified financial adviser regarding the suitability of any investment. Analyst certifications required under applicable regulations, including SEC Regulation AC (where relevant), are included in this report. By accessing, receiving or using this report, you acknowledge that you have read, understood and agreed to be bound by the Disclosures / Disclaimers, as may be amended, supplemented or updated from time to time.
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